https://jedi.upnjatim.ac.id/index.php/jedi/issue/feed 2026-03-03T03:19:37+00:00 N. Aida Triandini jedi@upnjatim.ac.id Open Journal Systems <p>Journal of Economics Development Issues is a scientific journal published by UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur and the scientific media for researchers and lecturers who will publish the results of their research. The aim of the Journal is to facilitate scientific publication of the results of research in Indonesia and participate to boost the quality and quantity of research for academics and researchers. Journal of Economics Development Issues published biannually with the scopes of the research areas that can be published in the Journal of Economics Development Issues are about economics, Business, and Policy</p> <p><a title="e-ISSN" href="https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/2614-2384" target="_blank" rel="noopener">e-ISSN: 2614-2384</a></p> https://jedi.upnjatim.ac.id/index.php/jedi/article/view/459 2026-01-27T04:31:16+00:00 Reza Ilyas Pratama rezailyaspratama@gmail.com Candra Mustika candra@unja.ac.id

<p><em>This study analyzes the dynamic impact of GRDP per capita, agricultural contribution, and Gini Ratio on the Poverty Gap Index in Jambi (2002–2024) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Data were sourced from BPS Jambi and reconstructed to ensure time-series consistency. The results reveal a development paradox: in the short run, GRDP and current agricultural output significantly reduce the poverty gap. However, a "sign reversal" occurs in agricultural lags, where past contributions correlate positively with poverty, indicating vulnerability to terms-of-trade shocks. Furthermore, income inequality significantly exacerbates poverty depth. The Error Correction Term (-0.5488) shows a rapid adjustment to equilibrium. In the long run, the insignificance of variables confirms a "growth without development" phenomenon. These findings suggest that poverty alleviation in Jambi lacks structural foundations, necessitating agricultural industrialization and adaptive social protection.</em></p> <p><em>&nbsp;</em></p> <p><strong>Keywords<em>:</em></strong><em> Agricultural sector; ARDL; Gini ratio; GRDP per capita; Poverty gap index</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>ABSTRAK</strong></p> <p><em>Studi ini menganalisis dampak dinamis PDRB per kapita, kontribusi pertanian, dan Gini Ratio terhadap Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan di Jambi (2002–2024) menggunakan pendekatan ARDL. Data bersumber dari BPS Provinsi Jambi yang direkonstruksi untuk menjamin konsistensi deret waktu. Hasil penelitian mengungkap paradoks pembangunan: dalam jangka pendek, PDRB dan output pertanian tahun berjalan signifikan menurunkan kedalaman kemiskinan. Namun, ditemukan "pembalikan arah" (sign reversal) pada lag pertanian, di mana kontribusi masa lalu berkorelasi positif dengan kemiskinan akibat kerentanan terhadap guncangan nilai tukar. Selain itu, ketimpangan pendapatan secara signifikan memperparah kedalaman kemiskinan. Error Correction Term (-0,5488) menunjukkan penyesuaian cepat menuju keseimbangan. Dalam jangka panjang, ketidaksignifikanan variabel mengonfirmasi fenomena "pertumbuhan tanpa pembangunan". Temuan ini menyiratkan perlunya transformasi struktur ekonomi melalui industrialisasi pertanian dan perlindungan sosial adaptif.</em></p> <p><em>&nbsp;</em></p> <p><strong>Kata kunci<em>:</em></strong><em> ARDL; Gini ratio; Indeks kedalaman kemiskinan; PDRB per kapita; Sektor pertanian</em></p>

2026-03-03T00:00:00+00:00 Copyright (c) 2026 Reza Ilyas Pratama, Candra Mustika